Zhaohua Chen (’27)
Victorious Democrats.
Off-year elections might seem unimportant or irrelevant in the grand political scheme. Yet, they often serve as a crucial temperature check on public opinion toward the incumbent administration. This year, voters across the United States made their views clear: every major race on November 4 swung overwhelmingly toward the Democrats.
The races
Abigail Spanberger (D) beat Winsome Earl-Sears (R) in the Virginia governor’s race by a margin of 15%, performing so well she carried disgraced Democratic Attorney General candidate Jay Jones over the finish line—despite his leaked texts fantasizing about shooting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his children.
Even though this was a significant win for Democrats, the Virginia House of Delegates demonstrated something even bigger. Democrats picked up 13 seats, expanding their majority from a slim 51–49 to a healthy 64–36, flipping several districts that went for Trump in 2024.
Mikie Sherrill (D) defeated Trump-backed Jack Ciattarelli (R) for the governorship of New Jersey by a margin of 13%, beating Harris’s 2024 margin by over seven points.
Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani, carried by his strong grassroots movement and rise to national fame, won the New York City mayoral race over Andrew Cuomo, securing a majority margin of 50.4% compared to Cuomo’s 41.6%.
In California, Governor Gavin Newsom scored a win through the passage of his ballot initiative, Proposition 50, which will temporarily adjust California’s district maps to restore fair representation and give Democrats a five-seat House advantage—a counterbalance to Texas Republicans’ egregiously politicized district map, which set them up to gain five more house seats.
Furthermore, in Georgia, two Democrats were elected to their statewide Public Service Commission. A seemingly unimportant race becomes extremely significant in the context that no Democrat has won a non-federal statewide race in twenty years in the state. This victory is unprecedented for the Democrats.
Why the overwhelming victory?
This election season essentially served as a referendum on Trump. Many of his key promises remain unfulfilled. Prices keep rising, the economy continues to struggle, tariffs have hurt consumers, thousands of people have faced unlawful ICE deportations, and many have lost their healthcare.
Republicans are arguing that Democrats only won on Tuesday because they are more likely to turn out for off-year elections. While Trump’s coalition does tend to be composed of low-propensity voters who only turn out when he’s on the ballot, that doesn’t fully explain these Democratic wins. According to CNN exit polls, both Sherrill and Spanberger won around 7% of Trump voters, suggesting that Democrats didn’t just benefit from low Republican turnout—they actively persuaded some of Trump’s base. If I were the Republican Party, I would be worried.
The longest government shutdown in US history, 36 days long on Election Day, likely also played a role. With so many federal workers living in Northern Virginia, voters there clearly placed blame on Republicans for the shutdown.
Meanwhile, Democrats capitalized on widespread frustration with the affordability crisis. They didn’t just run against the other party—they built a message voters were excited to support. Mamdani exemplified this approach with his laser focus on affordability. Nearly everyone even slightly tuned into his campaign could name his core policies: fast and free buses, universal childcare, and rent freezes. That’s a winning strategy because concerns about the cost of living come well before Trump. People are hungry for leaders who can diagnose and address the systemic causes of their economic struggles.
So, what’s the significance?
The results don’t look good for Trump and the Republican Party. In the short term, Democrats’ overwhelming success in northern Virginia signals that voters are holding Republicans responsible for the shutdown, which recently ended. This could pressure GOP leaders into negotiations, giving Democrats more leverage in the standoff.
Looking ahead to 2026, the results set Democrats up well for the midterms. Political analyst Dave Wasserman noted that outcomes in the Virginia House of Delegates often serve as a reliable bellwether for national trends, and Democrats’ strong showing there suggests momentum is on their side.
Although the results are inspiring for Democrats, they shouldn’t rest on their laurels just yet. Approval ratings for the Democratic brand as a whole are abysmal. They need to work on regaining the public’s trust and running candidates that excite voters. We will see if they step up to the challenge next year in the midterms.